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Prospects mixed but better than during last year's drought

Finally, a breath of north wind has reached the Texas coast.

Riding that autumn breeze was a trickle of white-fronted geese.

Wednesday brought a handful of reports from the coastal prairies east and southwest of Houston of sightings/hearings of the big brown waterfowl most folks call "specklebellies."

More are on the way.

"I talked with a friend of mine in Nebraska just a couple of days ago," Kevin Kraai said Wednesday. "He'd been watching and listening to whitefronts going overhead all day."

Specks are the first geese to make it to Texas each autumn on their annual southern migration from nesting areas extending from central and northwestern Alaska to the Foxe Basin region and the central Arctic.

And that arrival — the trickle will turn to a stream, then a flood over the coming weeks — announces that autumn waterfowl hunting seasons are getting close.

In eastern Texas, those seasons — duck and goose — are less than three weeks from their Nov. 3 opening day.

Goose hunters looking forward to this season might catch a break, at least where whitefronts are concerned. And there's even a bit of encouraging news on the snow goose front.

Kraai, who is assistant waterfowl program leader for the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, spent the last week of September and first of October in Canada, participating in the annual population survey of mid-continent population of white-fronted geese.

Monitoring migration

The autumn whitefront survey, which has been conducted each autumn since 1992, focuses on an area of western Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta where the entire mid-continent population of specklebellies gathers before making its move down the Central Flyway to wintering grounds in Texas, Louisiana and Mexico.

Over eight days, using two planes, a team of biologists from Canada and the United States conducted aerial surveys of the whitefront staging areas.

"We saw a lot of whitefronts — the counts were higher than we expected," Kraai said.

The data collected from the survey has yet to be crunched and tallied. But, Kraai said, it appears whitefronts pulled off a decent hatch in at least a portion of their range.

While weather conditions early in the nesting season in central and eastern parts of whitefront range suggested those birds would have below-average production, things proved brighter in western areas.

The final autumn count could be close to the 2006 estimate of 751,000 whitefronts, and that would be excellent. Whitefront numbers struggled a bit earlier this decade, with the autumn survey count ranging from 644,000 to 522,000 from 2002-05.

As long as those autumn estimates remain above the half-million mark, eastern Texas goose hunters are likely to see the moderate bag limit package they've enjoyed — a two-whitefront daily limit over a 72-day season.

And that two-speck bag limit is important to Texas goose hunters, particularly early in the season. Specks, which typically travel in smaller groups than the more populous snow geese, are more easily decoyed and provide much of the early-season action.

That's a good thing, because, often, snow geese don't arrive on the Texas coastal prairies in any great numbers until after the season opener.

Usually, a few small flocks of snows arrive in late October. But the main push of snow geese into Texas is during the middle of November.

Early reports from snow goose colonies were not greatly encouraging for Texas goose hunters hoping to see a lot of young, more gullible snows headed south.

Overall, the mid-continent population of snow geese remains very high. The 2006 mid-winter survey pegged the mid-continent population of "light geese (snow, blue, Ross)" at 2.9 million, 31 percent higher than 2005 and the second highest since the midwinter surveys were started in 1969.

But because of shrinking habitat on the traditional wintering grounds of the upper and middle Texas coastal plain and increased suitable wintering habitat in other parts of the mid-continent, fewer geese have been coming to Texas' coastal areas.

Duck numbers up

The coast's wintering population of snow geese, which was as high as a million birds a decade ago, has dropped to half that in recent years. Still, a half-million or so snows are headed this way.

Kraai said he talked with folks in Manitoba, where snows were staging ahead of their mass exodus to the south.

"Some bunches of snows had 20-25 percent young birds," he said.

Prospects for Texas' duck hunters, like those of goose hunters, are a bit mixed.

The duck population is strong — this spring's population index of the 10 most common ducks was 32.6 million, up 14 percent from a year ago and 24 percent above the 1955-2006 average.

But great habitat conditions in Texas are likely to spread those birds across the state and make it a bit tougher for waterfowlers to find concentrations.

An extremely wet year in most of Texas has created excellent duck habitat in regions where habitat has been poor and duck numbers skimpy the past couple of years.

The same applies to the Rolling Plains and South Texas, where heavy rainfall has filled thousands of stock tanks that were dry a year ago.

With all that available habitat, ducks very well could spread out over the state instead of concentrating in traditional wintering areas such as the coastal prairie and marshes.

The Texas Panhandle is the only region of the state where duck prospects look less that outstanding, Kraai said. While the region was wet early in the year, it has dried considerably the past couple of months.

"We've lost a lot of water in the Panhandle," Kraai said. "A lot of the playas (natural wetlands) that were holding water in the spring have dried out, and that's going to hurt hunting in that area."

Overall, Texas looks ready to greet the annual influx of waterfowl — ducks and geese — with much better conditions than a year ago, when most of Texas was in a severe drought.